Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
