Rising Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Concerns of Conflict

Growing concerns exist regarding the potential of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

Red Sea coastline
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government worked together in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in last year that his nation's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Border

So far, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, the officer, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle occurred, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders signed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a decision that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

However diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.

Haley Brown DDS
Haley Brown DDS

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets, specializing in data-driven predictions and risk management.